Back-to-School Spending 2025: Why Uniforms, Backpacks and Water Bottles Dominated July Sales

Table of Contents

1. Key Highlights
2. Introduction
3. What the nationwide numbers actually show
4. Why school uniforms surged — policy, timing and market momentum
5. Backpacks, lunch boxes and water bottles: practical items that signal identity
6. Why some staples rose modestly while markers fell
7. Regional patterns and what they reveal
8. What brands and retailers can do now: inventory, messaging, and channel strategy
9. Supply chain considerations for manufacturers and suppliers
10. What parents and caretakers need to know — smarter shopping moves
11. Opportunities for entrepreneurs and small sellers
12. Marketing tactics that convert during back-to-school season
13. Pricing and promotions: balancing margin and conversion
14. Long-term trends hinted at by the July data
15. How to read Shopify’s data and what it doesn’t show
16. Practical checklist for retailers preparing for the rest of the season
17. Case examples: how different sellers can react
18. Risks and headwinds to watch
19. Sustainability and resale: the quiet forces reshaping purchases
20. Preparing for next season: what to track now

Key Highlights

• Shopify’s July 2025 data shows the largest month-over-month gains in school uniforms (+231%), backpacks (+180%), and lunch boxes & totes (+174%), while markers and book covers declined.
• Top spending categories (backpacks, sports uniforms, water bottles, lunch boxes, pens, notebooks) reveal a mix of utility and personal expression; regional differences point to distinct shopping rhythms and local priorities.

Introduction

Each July, households across the United States shift into a familiar routine: list-making, price-checking and last-minute hunts for the essentials that signal a school year. Shopify’s sales snapshot for July 2025, comparing month-over-month figures to June, captures how those buying patterns are changing. The data highlights not only what families purchased most, but which categories saw the sharpest leaps — a useful signal for brands, brick-and-mortar retailers and independent sellers preparing inventory and marketing plans for the academic season.

The most dramatic movement came from school uniforms, which surged by more than 230% month over month. Backpacks and lunch containers also posted exceptionally large gains, while perennial items such as notebooks and pens grew more modestly. Some categories lost ground: markers and highlighters fell, as did book covers, suggesting shifts in curriculum materials and the role of digital tools. The regional breakdown — Midwest, Northeast, South and West Coast — reveals differing top sellers and growth patterns that reflect local school cultures and timing.

This article unpacks those patterns, explains what’s driving them, offers practical takeaways for sellers and shoppers, and examines where opportunity and risk lie for the coming months.

What the nationwide numbers actually show

Shopify’s July 2025 dataset ranks product categories by month-over-month (MoM) sales growth from June to July. The list reads like a classic school-supply inventory with a few revealing outliers:

• Highest MoM growth: school uniforms (+231%), backpacks (+180%), lunch boxes & totes (+174%).
• Highest total spend (July): backpacks, sports uniforms, water bottles, lunch boxes & totes, pens, notebooks.
• Declines: markers & highlighters (-8%), book covers (-1%).

Two dynamics are visible at once. First, high-percentage growth often reflects categories that were relatively small in June and suddenly spiked in July — school uniforms fit that pattern. Second, categories that represent steady, repeated purchases — notebooks, pens, pencils — now show reliable but moderate growth because demand is continuous across the year and not concentrated in a single month.

The distinction between absolute spend and percentage growth is crucial for merchants. A 231% increase on a small category may yield less revenue than a 24% increase on a large, established product line. Merchants must weigh growth rate against baseline volume when allocating inventory and ad budget.

Why school uniforms surged — policy, timing and market momentum

A 231% month-over-month rise in uniform purchases is not incidental. Several converging factors explain the surge:

• Policy-driven demand: The National Center for Education Statistics reported that in 2019–2020 roughly 18.8% of U.S. public schools required uniforms, with higher incidence at the elementary level (21%) than at high schools (12%). Where a district or school implements or reinforces uniform policies, purchasing concentrates in the weeks before term starts.
• Seasonal timing: Many districts and private schools finalize enrollments and issue uniform guidelines in late spring and early summer. Families often wait for registration or supply lists before buying, producing a July spike.
• Market growth expectations: Projections anticipate the school uniform market will grow at a 6.1% compound annual rate through 2031. That steady climb encourages manufacturers and retailers to gear up product lines, promotions and production runs to capture seasonable surges.

Uniforms also represent predictable repeat spending for schools that require them. Bulk procurement by districts and school stores, combined with direct-to-consumer uniform brands, creates multiple purchasing channels. For merchants, that predictability simplifies forecasting but demands strict attention to sizing, returns and consistent quality.

Backpacks, lunch boxes and water bottles: practical items that signal identity

Backpacks, lunch containers and water bottles were among the highest-spend categories in July, and their MoM growth was substantial. These items serve functional roles — carrying textbooks, keeping lunches cold and providing hydration — while also acting as one of the few everyday platforms for a student’s personal expression.

Design and brand matter. A durable, ergonomically designed backpack with a recognizable logo or a standout print can carry a premium. Insulated water bottles from brands like Hydro Flask and durable insulated lunch containers have become fashion statements in elementary through college-age cohorts. Suppliers who offer personalization — patches, name tags, or customizable prints — tap directly into a parent’s desire to avoid lost items and a child’s desire to distinguish themselves.

Retailers should anticipate purchase bundles: a backpack paired with a matching lunch box or water bottle often boosts average order value. Bundles also simplify buying decisions for parents juggling multiple lists.

Why some staples rose modestly while markers fell

Notebooks (+17%), pencils (+27%) and pens (+8%) saw steady increases, consistent with ongoing demand that is not concentrated in a single month. These categories are regular household replenishments rather than impulse or single-event purchases.

Markers and highlighters fell by 8%, and book covers declined by 1%. That shift aligns with several trends:

• Digital substitution: Schools increasingly adopt digital texts and digital note-taking tools, particularly in middle and high school. Chromebooks, tablets and classroom platforms reduce the need for physical book covers and marker-heavy activities.
• Curriculum changes: Syllabus shifts that favor project-based or blended learning can reduce consumable marker usage.
• Stockpiling behavior: Markers are often replaced more frequently, but parents may delay those purchases if they own sufficient supplies from prior years.

The decline does not mean these categories are obsolete. They remain essential in elementary classrooms and for art projects. Retailers should emphasize differentiated offerings — low-odor markers, eco-friendly options, refillable alternatives — to maintain interest.

Regional patterns and what they reveal

Shopify’s regional breakdown points to divergent local priorities and shopping rhythms.

Midwest

• Top sellers: sports uniforms, water bottles, backpacks, pens, lunch boxes and totes, notebooks.
• Notable spike: stickers and sticker machines rose 174% MoM.
• Unique decline: calculators fell 11% — the only region to record a calculator drop.

Interpretation: The Midwest’s spike in stickers suggests either a growing demand for personalization at younger ages or a trend tied to school stores and fundraising. The calculator decline could reflect differing curriculum timelines or less immediate demand for advanced calculators earlier in the season.

Northeast

• Top sellers: sports uniforms, school backpacks, water bottles, pens, lunch boxes and totes.
• Largest MoM uniform growth in the region: 25% for sports uniforms.
• Bulletin boards: smaller MoM growth (24%), compared with much higher gains in other regions.

Interpretation: Bulletin board growth lagging may indicate that educators in the Northeast are reorganizing classrooms earlier or relying on existing displays. Sports uniforms being top sellers points to strong school sports culture and earlier order cycles for organized athletics.

South

• Top sellers: backpacks, lunch boxes and totes, water bottles, sports uniforms, pens, notebooks.
• Highest MoM growth in water bottles (35%) and calculators (124%) relative to other regions.

Interpretation: High calculator growth suggests the South saw a late surge in orders for math-heavy courses or standardized test preparations. Elevated water bottle purchases could reflect hotter climates prompting demand for insulated containers that keep water cold during longer commutes or outdoor activity.

West Coast

• Top sellers: water bottles, sports uniforms, backpacks, pens, lunch boxes and totes, notebooks.
• Sports uniforms: second-highest total sales but a MoM decline of 14%.

Interpretation: The West Coast’s earlier purchasing pattern could explain the MoM decline in sports uniforms; families may have completed uniform purchases in June or earlier. The region’s top positioning for water bottles aligns with sustainability trends and an outdoor-active lifestyle.

Across regions, climate, school calendars, athletic prominence and local culture shape what families buy and when. Merchants should segment inventory and marketing by region rather than relying on a single national strategy.

What brands and retailers can do now: inventory, messaging, and channel strategy

The July data presents immediate operational and marketing directives for retailers at every scale.

Inventory planning

• Prioritize high-growth, high-margin items: stock uniforms, backpacks and insulated water bottles early. Match inventory to historical baseline and lift percentages rather than MoM percentages alone.
• Maintain safety stock for smaller but surging categories: stickers and sticker machines may represent a profitable niche despite lower baseline volume.
• Manage size availability for uniforms and backpacks: wrong sizes lead to returns and exchanges. Buy conservative assortments of less common sizes while ensuring enough of the primary sizing range.

Promotions and messaging

• Promote bundles: “backpack + lunch box + water bottle” bundles increase average order and offer convenience.
• Lead with durability and warranty messaging for higher-value items; parents rationalize price through longevity.
• Highlight personalization: custom name tags, patches and monogramming reduce loss rates and increase attachment.

Channel choices

• Social platforms: Visual platforms like Instagram, TikTok and Pinterest influence children and parents. Partner with micro-influencers to showcase style and durability.
• Search and paid ads: Adjust keyword targets to include “uniforms near me,” “kids backpacks 2025,” and long-tail queries like “insulated lunch box with compartments.”
• Marketplaces and omnichannel: Back-to-school shopping is not purely online. Offer in-store pickup, easy returns and consistent cross-channel stock levels.

Data-driven promotions

• Use cart- and browsing-behavior signals to offer tailored discounts: a shopper viewing a backpack and water bottle within the same session is a candidate for a bundle discount.
• Regional ad allocation should reflect local spikes — allocate more budget for water bottle ads on the West Coast or sticker machine promotions in the Midwest.

Supply chain considerations for manufacturers and suppliers

Manufacturers must align production calendars with the school calendar and the typical buying window. Key recommendations:

• Lead times and raw materials: Plan for longer lead times on popular materials (insulation foam, stainless steel for bottles; heavy-duty nylon for backpacks). Secure suppliers early to avoid stockouts.
• Quality control: Uniforms and backpacks undergo heavy wear; manufacturers that advertise and deliver higher durability reduce return rates and generate repeat purchases.
• Customization capacity: Brands that offer flexible small-batch personalization capture a premium. On-demand printing and embroidery reduce overproduction risk.
• Sustainability: Recycled fabrics, BPA-free bottles and refillable marker systems respond to consumer preferences, particularly in regions like the West Coast and Northeast.

Manufacturers should also track school procurement cycles. District bulk orders and school store contracts move on different timelines than consumer purchasing and require dedicated B2B outreach.

What parents and caretakers need to know — smarter shopping moves

Families can benefit from understanding these trends to buy smarter:

• Buy what’s required first: Uniform policies and school supply lists are non-negotiable. Confirm requirements before splurging on trend items.
• Invest in durability for high-use items: A higher-priced backpack that prevents posture issues and lasts multiple school years is cost-effective.
• Consider resale and hand-me-down channels: Uniforms and many backpacks hold value. Buy neutral or classic pieces for easier resale.
• Measure and plan for growth: Children grow quickly. If a child is near the top of a size range, consider a slightly larger size for longevity.
• Bundles and promotions save money: Look for retailers bundling backpacks and lunch gear. Extended returns and exchange policies reduce sizing risk.

A strategic approach to purchasing reduces waste, prevents duplicate buys and keeps budgets under control.

Opportunities for entrepreneurs and small sellers

The back-to-school season creates predictable windows of opportunity for independent sellers and small brands. The Shopify data highlights several niches:

• Uniform accessories: Name tags, belt loops, extension panels for growing children, and repair kits for uniforms meet a consistent need.
• Customization services: On-demand embroidery and print shops that personalize backpacks or hats create a premium offering without large inventory commitments.
• Sustainable substitutes: Refillable markers, compostable binders and bottles made from recycled steel attract eco-conscious buyers.
• Novelty and personalization: Sticker machines and sticker bundles, once a novelty, have seen material demand spikes. Selling curated sticker packs tied to trending characters or themes can scale quickly.
• Bundled and subscription models: Monthly replenishment boxes (pencils, erasers, markers, sticky notes) for elementary school families guarantee recurring revenue.

Small sellers should focus on quick fulfillment, clear sizing charts, photography that shows scale and durability, and customer service policies that reduce returns.

Marketing tactics that convert during back-to-school season

Effective marketing during this window is a mix of urgency, social proof and practical utility.

Timing and messaging

• Early bird campaigns: Launch promotions in late June and early July for families that plan ahead.
• Countdown promotions: Use countdowns to the school start date to create urgency without resorting to high-pressure tactics.
• Feature lists and checklists: Create school-supply checklists and match your products to those lists in product detail pages.

Content formats

• How-to videos: Demonstrate packing a backpack ergonomically, cleaning a water bottle, or customising a uniform. Videos build trust and reduce return rates.
• User-generated content: Encourage buyers to share photos of their kids using the products. Repost with permission and offer small incentives.
• Comparisons and reviews: Side-by-side product comparisons help price-sensitive shoppers decide quickly.

Paid channels and SEO

• Keyword strategy: Target intent-driven queries (“boys’ navy school uniform,” “best insulated water bottle for kids,” “durable backpacks for middle school”).
• Geotargeting: Serve localized ads based on regional spikes — for example, featuring calculators in markets showing strong MoM increases.
• Retargeting: Re-target visitors who viewed bundles with a small discount or free name-label offer to close the sale.

Pricing and promotions: balancing margin and conversion

Pricing strategy must reflect consumption patterns and competition.

• Price tiers: Offer entry-level, mid-tier and premium options. Not every family seeks the highest-priced item; many will choose durability at a mid-range price.
• Promotion timing: Deep discounts in late July or August risk missing early planners and can condition buyers to wait. Use targeted promotions rather than site-wide markdowns.
• Free shipping thresholds: Set thresholds that encourage increased cart size without eroding margins; pair with bundle discounts for high-ticket items.
• Returns and exchanges: A generous exchange window for sizes reduces cart abandonment but increases logistics costs. Use shipping credits or store credit to balance those costs.

Sellers should continuously monitor conversion rates and average order values during the season to adjust offers in real time.

Long-term trends hinted at by the July data

The Shopify snapshot does more than explain a single month. It hints at longer-term shifts:

• Personalization grows: Stickers, custom name labels and personalized bottles point to sustained demand for individual expression even in uniformed settings.
• Sustainability is not a niche: Water bottle popularity aligns with reusable, premium designs that prioritize materials and longevity.
• Hybrid learning’s footprint: Moderated growth in markers and book covers suggests ongoing integration of digital materials, especially in higher grades, but physical supplies remain critical in younger grades.
• Localized commerce matters: Regional differences indicate retailers who tailor assortments and media buys to local demand win market share.

Retailers and manufacturers who translate these cues into product development and regionalized go-to-market strategies will perform better than those relying solely on national averages.

How to read Shopify’s data and what it doesn’t show

Shopify’s month-over-month growth figures provide essential signals but require careful interpretation.

What the data captures

• E-commerce activity across Shopify-powered stores comparing July to June 2025.
• Relative month-over-month changes by product category and region.
• The momentum of specific product types during a key purchasing window.

What the data does not capture

• Offline retail: Large portions of back-to-school buying still occur at big-box stores, specialty shops and school supply drives.
• Absolute revenue totals: Percentage growth does not reveal baseline sales amounts. A 231% increase on a small category may be less revenue than a 24% increase on a top-selling category.
• Demographic breakdowns: The dataset lacks age, income or household-size segmentation that would clarify who’s buying what.
• Promotional effects: Sales may be influenced by one-time promotions, inventory shortages, or marketing campaigns not visible in the aggregate data.

Interpreting the numbers requires combining Shopify’s signals with secondary data: school calendars, official uniform policies, local climate patterns and competitive retail pricing.

Practical checklist for retailers preparing for the rest of the season

Retailers can operationalize Shopify’s insights with a focused checklist:

1. Audit inventory now for uniforms, backpacks, insulated bottles and lunch gear.
2. Create size charts, clear return policies and exchange workflows to handle sizing issues quickly.
3. Build bundles that pair high-demand items to increase average order value.
4. Segment paid media spend by region and product category using Shopify’s growth signals.
5. Add personalization options (name embroidery, patches) for higher ticket items.
6. Offer multiple fulfillment options: shipping, curbside pickup and buy-online-pick-up-in-store.
7. Prepare customer service scripts to handle sizing, warranty and school policy questions.
8. Track competitor pricing weekly and adjust promotions for volatility in supply.
9. Monitor search trends for localized spikes (for example, calculators in the South).
10. Plan inventory reorders two to four weeks in advance for products with short lead times.

Following and iterating on this checklist keeps operations aligned with buying behavior and minimizes missed opportunities.

Case examples: how different sellers can react

Large national retailer

• Tactics: Prioritize wide assortments in multiple sizes and colors, national ad campaign emphasizing durability and value, partnerships with schools for bulk orders.
• Operational focus: Returns handling, large-scale logistics, and price competitiveness.

Mid-size specialty brand (e.g., premium backpacks or sustainable bottles)

• Tactics: Highlight materials and sustainability credentials, leverage influencer partnerships, lean into personalization.
• Operational focus: Limited-run product drops, on-demand personalization, premium packaging.

Independent seller on a marketplace

• Tactics: Niche products like sticker bundles, custom name labels or small-batch uniform accessories, aggressive social proof collection (photos, reviews).
• Operational focus: Fast shipping, clear sizing, responsive customer support.

Each seller type must translate category growth into concrete actions suited to scale and customer base.

Risks and headwinds to watch

Several risks could temper the opportunities signaled by July’s data:

• Supply chain disruptions: Delays in raw materials or manufacturing capacity could cause stockouts during peak demand.
• Price sensitivity: Inflationary pressure on household budgets may shift purchases toward low-cost options or secondhand markets.
• Policy changes: Last-minute uniform decisions by schools or shifts to more remote learning models can lower demand for certain categories.
• Competitive pressure: Heavy discounting or new entrants in key segments (e.g., low-cost backpack manufacturers) may compress margins.

Mitigation strategies include diversified sourcing, dynamic pricing, conservative reorder points and flexible return policies.

Sustainability and resale: the quiet forces reshaping purchases

Sustainability is increasingly shaping product choices. Reusable bottles and durable backpacks earn higher initial prices but reduce lifetime cost and waste. Resale markets for gently used uniforms and backpacks reduce new-purchase frequency but open secondary revenue opportunities for consignment models and trade-in programs.

Retailers can integrate sustainability into product descriptions and offer take-back or trade-in incentives. Brands that certify materials or provide repair services increase lifetime value and customer loyalty.

Preparing for next season: what to track now

Metrics to monitor immediately to prepare for the next back-to-school cycle:

• Sell-through rates by SKU and size over the next two months.
• Regional conversion rates for key categories: uniforms, backpacks, bottles.
• Average order value and the impact of bundles or personalization options.
• Return and exchange rates, especially for sized items.
• Customer acquisition cost by channel during the season.
• Social engagement and sentiment around product durability and fit.

These indicators inform assortment planning, pricing and marketing strategies for the next school year.

FAQ

Q: Why did school uniforms show a 231% increase in July? A: Uniform purchases concentrate around enrollment confirmations and supply-list releases, which typically occur in late spring and early summer. Shopify’s July-to-June comparison captured that concentrated buying window. Policy enforcement at the school or district level and projected market growth for uniforms also contribute to the surge.

Q: Are backpacks the biggest category by spend? A: Backpacks were among the categories with the greatest total spend in July, along with sports uniforms, water bottles, lunch boxes, pens and notebooks. High total spend indicates both frequent purchases and higher-priced items.

Q: Should retailers prioritize stocking items with the largest percentage growth? A: Not necessarily. High-percentage growth on small baseline categories can be misleading. Merchants should balance growth rates with historical baseline volume and margin. Prioritize items that combine strong growth with substantial baseline demand, and allocate smaller, agile inventory to niche high-growth categories.

Q: Why did markers and book covers decline? A: Declines in markers and book covers likely reflect mixed trends: increased digital adoption (reducing the need for physical covers and some consumables), shifts in curriculum, and stockpiling from previous years. These items remain essential in many classrooms, particularly at lower grade levels.

Q: What regional differences matter most for sellers? A: Each region shows unique patterns: the Midwest saw a significant spike in stickers; the South recorded strong calculator and water bottle growth; the West Coast led on water bottle spend and may purchase some items earlier. Sellers should match assortments and marketing to regional demand signals rather than using a single national plan.

Q: How reliable is Shopify’s data as a predictor? A: Shopify’s data is a valuable signal for e-commerce activity on Shopify-powered stores but does not include offline retail or full-market totals. Use it in combination with local school calendars, district policies, and historical sales to build a fuller picture.

Q: What immediate actions should a small seller take? A: Small sellers should identify a niche product aligned with the July trends (e.g., uniform accessories, sticker packs, personalized name labels), ensure fast shipping, create clear sizing and return policies, promote bundles, and leverage social proof and targeted social ads to drive conversions.

Q: How does sustainability factor into product choice? A: Consumers increasingly prefer durable, repairable and recyclable products. Emphasizing material sourcing, long-term warranties and repair programs can justify premium pricing and increase customer loyalty.

Q: Are there opportunities in the resale market? A: Yes. Uniforms and durable backpacks maintain resale value. Retailers can offer consignment or trade-in programs to capture customers who prefer lower-cost options and foster circular-economy purchases.

Q: What should parents prioritize when shopping? A: Confirm school requirements first, buy durability for high-use items, consider resale or hand-me-down channels for uniforms, and take advantage of bundles and return policies to manage sizing risk.

Q: How should retailers handle returns and exchanges? A: Offer clear, generous exchange windows for sizing, streamline label and shipping options for exchanges, and consider partial refunds or store credits to balance customer satisfaction with logistical costs.

Q: Will digital tools eventually eliminate physical school supplies? A: Digital tools reduce the need for some categories (book covers, certain markers), especially in secondary grades, but hands-on learning remains central in early education. Physical supplies will continue to matter, though their composition and demand trajectory will shift.

Q: How can a new brand test the market cost-effectively? A: Start with small inventory runs, on-demand personalization, pop-up partnerships with local schools or PTA events, and targeted social ads. Track conversion and return rates closely and expand SKUs that perform best.

Q: When should retailers shift inventory for off-peak sales? A: Monitor real-time sell-through rates. If an SKU shows low conversion two weeks after a promotional push, consider shifting to markdowns or bundling to clear stock before demand drops.

Q: What are the most reliable leading indicators for September performance? A: Early sell-through, replenishment rates, cart abandonment trends for key categories and regional ad performance are the most reliable real-time indicators heading into the school year.

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The back-to-school season remains a predictable period of concentrated consumer activity, but Shopify’s July 2025 snapshot underscores that predictable patterns coexist with evolving consumer preferences. Uniforms’ sharp rise, continued appetite for backpacks and water bottles, and regional variations all signal where demand is moving. Sellers who translate these signals into timed assortments, targeted campaigns and flexible fulfillment will capture a larger share of this seasonal market.